Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 20 brokers · 435 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-19.
Broker models describe a business whose reported growth troughs in FY-2027 at 3.88% before re-accelerating, even as constant-currency growth is already improving from 3.72% in FY-2026 to 4.16% in FY-2027. The differentiated detail sits below the P&L: Generative AI bookings compound in every modeled year while total bookings grow mid-single digits at an unchanged 1.14x book-to-bill, and Managed Services passes Consulting in the revenue mix in FY-2026. Margin is the quiet constant, with operating margin rising from 15.58% to 16.03% across the window on a delivery base the models barely grow. Where the models genuinely diverge is the size of the AI ramp and how the cash is deployed, not the near-term P&L.
Generative AI carries the bookings story — total bookings still grow mid-single digits at a 1.14x book-to-bill
Generative AI bookings rise in every modeled year, yet total bookings grow mid-single digits and book-to-bill sits at 1.14x from FY-2025 through FY-2027 — on these models AI work is more a relabelling of demand than an addition to it. Underneath, Consulting book-to-bill improves from 1.08x to 1.11x while Managed Services slips from 1.21x to 1.16x. Four brokers carry the Generative AI line from FY-2026 onward against six on the other bookings rows.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookings | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Bookings | $79.36bn | $83.60bn | $86.94bn | $91.05bn | +5.3% | 6 |
| Bookings - Generative AI | $5.13bn | $9.91bn | $15.51bn | $21.05bn | +93.2% | 4 |
| Bookings - Consulting | $37.75bn | $40.19bn | $41.48bn | $43.12bn | +6.5% | 6 |
| Bookings - Managed Services (Outsourcing) | $41.61bn | $43.41bn | $45.46bn | $47.92bn | +4.3% | 6 |
| Book-to-bill | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Book to bill ratio - Total(x) | 1.14 Ratio | 1.14 Ratio | 1.14 Ratio | 1.13 Ratio | -0.7% | 6 |
| Book to bill ratio - Consulting(x) | 1.08 Ratio | 1.11 Ratio | 1.11 Ratio | 1.09 Ratio | +2.7% | 6 |
| Book to bill ratio - Managed Services (Outsourcing)(x) | 1.21 Ratio | 1.16 Ratio | 1.17 Ratio | 1.17 Ratio | -4.1% | 6 |
The growth dip is currency, not demand: 4QFY-2026 reported growth falls to 2.61% while constant currency holds at 2.98%
Reported growth swings from 7.52% in 2QFY-2026 to 2.61% in 4QFY-2026, while constant currency travels only from 4.37% to 2.98% over the same stretch. The swing factor is the forex line, worth 3.40% in 2QFY-2026 and -0.36% by 2QFY-2027. The constant-currency and forex rows carry 11 brokers in the forward quarters against 17 on reported growth, so read them as the smaller, more considered sample.
| Line | 4QFY-2025A | 1QFY-2026A | 2QFY-2026A | 3QFY-2026A | 4QFY-2026E | 1QFY-2027E | 2QFY-2027E | 3QFY-2027E | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue | $17.37bn | $18.53bn | $17.89bn | $18.80bn | $18.07bn | $19.38bn | $18.66bn | $19.49bn | 19 |
| Growth bridge | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue growth - YoY - Total(%) | 6.2% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 19 |
| Revenue growth - YoY - CC(%) | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 14 |
| Revenue growth - YoY - Forex(%) | 2.5% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 2.4% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | 0.0% | 14 |
Managed Services passes Consulting in the FY-2026 mix, and operating margin still grinds from 15.58% to 16.03%
Managed Services overtakes Consulting on both revenue and mix in FY-2026 and holds the lead through FY-2028, a shift toward the lower-price, longer-duration half of the business. Margin does not pay for it: gross margin edges from 32.02% to 32.30% and operating margin from 15.58% to 16.03%, on a headcount line the models take from 797,266 in FY-2025 to 829,050 in FY-2028. The staff row rests on six brokers, well below the 17 to 18 on the P&L rows above it.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mix | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue - Managed Services (Outsourcing) | $34.38bn | $37.18bn | $38.75bn | $40.80bn | +8.1% | 11 |
| Revenue - Consulting | $35.03bn | $36.42bn | $37.70bn | $39.47bn | +4.0% | 11 |
| Revenue mix - Managed Services (Outsourcing)(%) | 49.5% | 50.5% | 50.7% | 50.8% | +1.0pt | 11 |
| Revenue mix - Consulting(%) | 50.5% | 49.5% | 49.3% | 49.2% | -1.0pt | 11 |
| Margin | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross margin(%) | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.2% | 32.3% | -0.0pt | 19 |
| Operating margin(%) | 15.6% | 15.8% | 15.9% | 16.0% | +0.2pt | 19 |
| Operating income/(loss) - Operating | $10.82bn | $11.60bn | $12.14bn | $12.84bn | +7.2% | 20 |
| Delivery base | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Staff(#) | 797,266 Number | 793,144 Number | 812,459 Number | 829,050 Number | -0.5% | 7 |
M&A does much of the growth work: organic growth is modeled at 1.85% in FY-2027 against an FY-2026 spike in deal spend
The organic line — four brokers only — is modeled at 2.09% in FY-2026 and 1.85% in FY-2027, well under the reported rate, while acquisition spend steps up sharply in FY-2026 before settling back. Repurchases are modeled lower in FY-2027 and FY-2028 than in FY-2026, so the payout ratio rises from 45.70% to 50.90% on a mix leaning more on the dividend. Cash generation is the dependable part: FCF per share moves from 14.88 to 20.67 across the window.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Organic engine | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue growth - Organic(%) | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | -1.9pt | 7 |
| Cash deployment | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Purchases of businesses and investments, net of cash acquired | $1.26bn | $7.49bn | $3.59bn | $3.82bn | +494.2% | 13 |
| Purchases of shares | $4.74bn | $5.98bn | $4.73bn | $4.35bn | +26.2% | 15 |
| Total payout ratio(%) | 45.7% | 47.2% | 49.7% | 50.9% | +1.5pt | 11 |
| Cash generation | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow | $9.41bn | $11.17bn | $11.61bn | $12.51bn | +18.8% | 15 |
| FCF per share($) | $14.88 | $18.04 | $19.07 | $20.67 | +21.2% | 14 |
The live arguments are the size of the AI ramp and the pace of buybacks — not the FY-2027 P&L
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookings - Generative AI | FY-2028E | $17.50bn | $14.86bn–$23.69bn | $11.45bn–$37.74bn | 4 |
| Purchases of shares | FY-2027E | $4.80bn | $4.00bn–$5.20bn | $2.50bn–$7.00bn | 13 |
| Free cash flow | FY-2027E | $11.59bn | $11.06bn–$12.15bn | $9.42bn–$13.87bn | 14 |
| Staff(#) | FY-2028E | 815,592 Number | 783,812 Number–862,444 Number | 761,994 Number–929,843 Number | 6 |
The most differentiated lines here are also the thinnest-covered
Generative AI bookings and organic revenue growth carry four brokers, and staff and total bookings six, against 17 on revenue and 18 on operating income. Utilization is a single-broker line and attrition a two-broker line, so neither is consensus and neither is shown here. Consensus was last updated 2026-07-19, but the bookings and organic rows were last revised 2026-06-28 and 2026-06-19 respectively, so they predate the newest P&L marks.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.