Estimates
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-08-01.
The consensus tape shows a company that keeps beating and keeps getting trimmed: eight consecutive normalized-EPS beats through FY26 Q3, against FY27 and FY28 EPS estimates cut 1.4% and 2.3% over the past six months. Revenue estimates fell alongside EPS rather than diverging from it, so the cuts read as a top-line mark-down rather than a margin story. The trimming stopped roughly a month ago, with every 30-day change inside 0.1%. The street has settled at neutral: no sell ratings anywhere, but 13 analysts at hold and targets spanning USD 130 to 275.
FY28 EPS consensus is down 2.3% in six months, and revenue is down 2.4% right alongside it
Almost all of the damage landed between the six-month and three-month marks; the last 30 days are flat to marginally higher on all four lines, so the cutting cycle has paused rather than reversed. FY28 was marked down harder than FY27 on both metrics.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | $14.89 | $14.88 | $14.67 | $14.68 | -1.3% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028 | $16.16 | $16.12 | $15.78 | $15.79 | -2.0% |
| Revenue | FY2027 | $77.95bn | $78.00bn | $76.64bn | $76.61bn | -1.8% |
| Revenue | FY2028 | $82.72bn | $82.75bn | $80.70bn | $80.77bn | -2.4% |
Eight straight normalized-EPS beats, but revenue just missed for the first time in the visible record
Normalized EPS has cleared consensus in all eight captured quarters, by as much as 5.9% in FY26 Q1, which reads as conservative guidance. Revenue beat seven times before coming in 0.2% light in FY26 Q3 — the first crack, and it lines up with the period when forward revenue estimates were cut.
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 1 consecutive miss; EPS (normalized): 8 consecutive beats.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | Revenue | $18.75bn | $18.72bn | -0.2% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $3.71 | $3.80 | +2.5% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2026 | Revenue | $17.84bn | $18.04bn | +1.1% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $2.84 | $2.93 | +3.3% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | $18.53bn | $18.74bn | +1.1% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $3.72 | $3.94 | +5.9% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | $17.36bn | $17.60bn | +1.4% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $2.97 | $3.03 | +2.0% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | $17.32bn | $17.73bn | +2.3% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $3.32 | $3.49 | +5.0% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | $16.61bn | $16.66bn | +0.3% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $2.81 | $2.82 | +0.3% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | $17.14bn | $17.69bn | +3.2% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $3.42 | $3.59 | +5.1% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | Revenue | $16.38bn | $16.41bn | +0.2% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $2.77 | $2.79 | +0.6% | Beat |
EPS is set to outgrow revenue in every forward year as gross margin edges from 32.0% to 32.3%
Consensus revenue growth troughs in FY27 before FY28 reaccelerates, while normalized EPS compounds faster than revenue in each year. Note the coverage asymmetry: EBITDA is carried by 9 to 11 analysts against 19 to 28 on revenue and EPS, so the margin line is the thinnest part of the forward view. Driver-level detail behind these lines sits in the Visible Alpha tab.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $73.56bn | $76.61bn | $80.77bn | +5.6% | 23 | $73.32bn / $74.00bn |
| EPS (normalized) | $13.87 | $14.68 | $15.79 | +7.3% | 27 | $13.79 / $14.13 |
| EBITDA | $14.02bn | $14.85bn | $15.82bn | +5.5% | 11 | $13.67bn / $14.77bn |
| Gross margin | 32.0% | 32.1% | 32.3% | +0.0pt | — | — |
| Free cash flow | $11.20bn | $11.74bn | $12.58bn | +16.9% | — | — |
No sell ratings anywhere, yet 13 analysts sit at hold and targets span USD 130 to 275
Mean and median targets sit at USD 178.89 and 179 across 25 estimates, with the high more than double the low. The absence of any sell or underperform rating alongside a plurality at hold is the shape of coverage that has stopped downgrading but has not re-engaged.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 11, Outperform 3, Hold 13, Underperform 0, Sell 0 | 27 |
| Consensus score | 2.07 | 27 |
| Target price | mean $178.9; median $179.0; high $275.0; low $130.0 | 25 |
Coverage collapses to 2 analysts at FY29
FY2029 carries just 2 estimates for revenue, normalized EPS and net income, so any outer-year growth step is two houses rather than the street. FY28 is thinner than the front years too: 21 analysts on normalized EPS spanning 14.13 to 16.90, and only 9 on EBITDA.